In numbers and academic facts.. Morocco and Senegal's football superiority over the continent's economy

Morocco and Senegal are achieving football results far beyond what their national economic resources alone would suggest according to a new academic study examining the relationship between wealth and sporting performance in Africa.

The research, conducted by Thierno Thioune and Babacar Mbaye Ndiaye of Senegal's Cheikh Anta Diop University, analysed the 24 national teams that participated in the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations.

Using gross domestic product GDP, population figures and FIFA ranking points, the researchers found that Senegal and Morocco recorded the strongest positive performance differences relative to their economic profiles.

But the most revealing finding concerns the gap between economic size and footballing strength.

Senegal ranks just 15th in GDP among the 24 countries examined, yet rises to second in the study's simulated performance ranking, a difference of 13 places.

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Senegal gains 13 places.. Morocco leads despite economic gap

The study, published on arXiv in October 2026, offers a striking comparison between African countries.

Senegal's estimated GDP stands at $37.1 billion, placing it 15th among the participating nations. Yet its simulated football performance ranks second.

Morocco, with an estimated GDP of $182.6 billion, moves from fifth place economically to first in simulated performance.

The contrast becomes even more significant when compared with South Africa.

Despite having the largest economy in the sample, estimated at $427.1 billion, South Africa ranks only 10th in simulated football performance.

Tanzania provides another example, falling from ninth economically to 21st in the sporting model.

Rankings are among the 24 AFCON 2025 participants, not all African countries

The findings challenge the assumption that countries with larger economies necessarily produce stronger national football teams.

What explains Morocco and Senegal's advantage?

The researchers suggest that footballing performance cannot be understood through economic indicators alone.

Other factors, including institutional quality, football tradition, diaspora talent and player development, may help explain why some nations perform above their GDP based expectations.

Morocco's recent international progress offers an illustration of the wider question.

The Atlas Lions reached the 2022 World Cup semi finals and the 2026 quarter finals while Senegal has established itself among Africa's leading national teams.

As Foot Africa reported in its October FIFA ranking analysis, Morocco and Senegal continued to occupy the continent's top two positions.

However, the study does not establish which development policies or institutional factors caused their success.

Its authors acknowledge that the model relies heavily on FIFA ranking points and does not directly measure federation spending, academy effectiveness or the quality of football administration.

The findings therefore identify a statistical relationship rather than proving that Morocco and Senegal spend their football budgets more efficiently.

Does the pattern extend beyond Africa?

The same researchers subsequently tested their approach against all 48 teams that participated in the 2026 World Cup.

Their follow up paper, published on 20 October, found that GDP and population explained only around 9% of the variation in single-tournament performances.

Using FIFA ranking points as a broader measure of footballing strength, Morocco and Senegal again emerged among the leading countries outperforming their economic profiles alongside nations such as Argentina, Croatia and Portugal.

Khaled Hegazy |

Editorar, en

Journaliste sportif spécialisé dans la couverture du football et la création de contenu numérique, alliant expérience éditoriale et expertise des médias sociaux.

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