2026 World Cup: South Korea penalizes Senegal and Algeria
Last night, South Africa pulled off a surprise by defeating South Korea. This win, combined with the Czech Republic's loss to Mexico, helped the South Africans secure direct qualification for the round of 32.
However, their victory—and South Korea's defeat—completely reshuffles the ranking of the best third-placed teams. In fact, with three points and a goal difference of -1, South Korea now has a 95% chance of advancing as one of the best third-placed teams.
But their presence has dealt a blow to the qualification hopes of Algeria and Senegal. For the Fennecs to qualify as one of the best third-placed teams, they must avoid defeat at all costs—especially by a two-goal margin, which would drastically reduce their chances.
As a result, Algeria's qualification chances have dropped by 10% (now down to 70%). The story is similar for Senegal, who must now beat Iraq—and do so by at least a two-goal margin—to keep their hopes alive.