Champions League 2026-27: Arsenal lead Bayern and Manchester City in Opta predictions

Opta has released its first Champions League title probabilities, with three European heavyweights leading the race.

Ahead of the 2026-27 Champions League, Opta’s supercomputer has identified the leading contenders. Arsenal top the ranking with a 20.9% chance of lifting the trophy. Bayern Munich are close behind on 19.4%, while Manchester City complete the leading trio with 12.3%.

Barcelona and PSG ahead of Liverpool and Real Madrid

Barcelona sit fourth with an 8.2% probability, followed by Paris Saint-Germain on 7.1%. Liverpool are rated at 6.1%, while Real Madrid receive a 4.4% chance. These figures are based on statistical simulations and do not guarantee the outcome.

1. Arsenal: 20.9%
2. Bayern Munich: 19.4%
3. Manchester City: 12.3%
4. Barcelona: 8.2%
5. Paris Saint-Germain: 7.1%
6. Liverpool: 6.1%
7. Real Madrid: 4.4%

All eight opponents for each favourite in the league phase

The revamped competition no longer features traditional groups. All 36 teams compete in one league table, with each side facing eight different opponents, four at home and four away. Here are the schedules awaiting Opta’s seven favourites:

• Arsenal: Napoli (away), Lille (home), Bayern (away), Slavia Prague (away), Dortmund (home), Real Madrid (home), Real Betis (away), Sabah (home).
• Bayern Munich: Bodø/Glimt (home), Viking (away), Arsenal (home), Atlético Madrid (away), Lille (away), Slavia Prague (home), Manchester United (away), Real Betis (home).
• Manchester City: Porto (away), PSG (home), AEK Athens (home), Leipzig (away), Napoli (home), Barcelona (away), Lens (away), Sporting CP (home).
• Barcelona: Feyenoord (home), Galatasaray (away), PSG (away), Aston Villa (home), Sabah (away), Manchester City (home), Sporting CP (away), Como (home).
• Paris Saint-Germain: Slovan Bratislava (home), Manchester City (away), Barcelona (home), Villarreal (away), Roma (home), Aston Villa (away), Como (away), Galatasaray (home).
• Liverpool: Atlético Madrid (away), LASK (away), Villarreal (home), Fenerbahçe (away), Club Brugge (away), Porto (home), Inter Milan (away), Lens (home).
• Real Madrid: Inter Milan (home), Roma (away), Leipzig (home), AEK Athens (away), PSV Eindhoven (home), Arsenal (away), LASK (home), Shakhtar Donetsk (away).

Read also : AFCON 2027 qualifiers: Full Matchday 1 and 2 schedule

Mahdi Zakaria LAZRI |

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Football web writer creating digital sports content with a focus on news, analysis and stories that reflect passion, accuracy and objectivity.

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