Opta: Here is who will win AFCON 2025!

As AFCON 2025 heads into its most decisive phase, statistical projections are shedding light on a tournament that is proving to be more open than it might seem. According to Opta’s latest models, the hierarchy of favorites has become clearer after the round of 16, highlighting contrasting dynamics between historic powerhouses, ambitious hosts, and ever-alert outsiders ready to seize their moment.

See also: AFCON 2025 – the nationalities dominating the tournament

Morocco maintains its benchmark status. Buoyed by a strong run, home advantage, and remarkable statistical consistency, the host nation remains the number one favorite. Hot on their heels, Senegal once again proves its mettle on the big stage, while Algeria, on a steady rise, has firmly established itself as a credible contender for the crown. Egypt, despite its continental pedigree, has seen its odds drop slightly—a sign that prestige alone is no longer enough in this fiercely competitive tournament.

Here is the ranking of winning chances according to Opta, from highest to lowest:

• Morocco: 22.52%
• Senegal: 17.64%
• Algeria: 14.91%
• Egypt: 12.25%
• Nigeria: 11.96%
• Ivory Coast: 8.66%
• Cameroon: 6.39%
• Mali: 5.67%

Mahdi Zakaria LAZRI |

Editor

Football web writer creating digital sports content with a focus on news, analysis and stories that reflect passion, accuracy and objectivity.