World Cup 2026 predictions: Opta names Europe’s top favourite and Africa’s biggest hopes

Africa Today at 16:35

Khaled Hegazy

News Editor

The FIFA World Cup 2026 has not started yet but Opta’s supercomputer has already added another layer of drama to the tournament.

With the competition expanding to 48 team for first time, predictions are no longer only about who can win the title.

They now measure each team’s route through a longer and more complicated tournament, from the group stage to the round of 32, round of 16, quarter finals, semi finals, final and eventual trophy.

According to Opta Analyst, the model ran 25000 pre tournament simulations to calculate each country’s chances before the opening match.

The biggest headline is clear, Spain are the strongest favourites to win the 2026 World Cup.

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Spain top the global list

Spain were given a 16.1% chance of lifting the trophy making them the leading title contenders before the tournament begins.

France come next at 13.0%, followed by England at 11.2% and defending champions Argentina at 10.4%. Portugal, Brazil and Germany complete the next tier of major contenders, with all three still seen as serious threats if they build momentum during the knockout stage.

Spain’s position is not only built on their title percentage. Opta also rated them as the only team more likely than not to reach the quarter finals doing so in more than half of the simulations.

They also reached the semi finals and final more often than any other team in the model.

This reflects Spain’s recent strength, their Euro 2024 success and the quality of a new generation built around technical control, pressing and attacking depth.

Africa’s leading hope

For African football, Morocco stand above the rest.

The Atlas Lions are considered the strongest African side in the tournament by Opta, with an 88.7% chance of reaching the round of 32 from a difficult group containing Brazil, Scotland and Haiti.

Morocco are also the only African team close to the wider group of global dark horses. Their title chance is listed at 1.9% which puts them above several traditional World Cup names and confirms that their historic 2022 run to the semi finals still influences how the data model views them.

Egypt carry real knockout hope

Egypt also receive encouraging numbers.

The Pharaohs are given a 68.2% chance of escaping Group G where they will face Belgium, Iran and New Zealand. Opta also gives Egypt a 30.6% chance of reaching the round of 16.

Senegal and Ivory Coast stay dangerous

The Lions of Teranga have a 62.0% chance of reaching the knockout stage from a difficult Group I featuring France, Norway and Iraq.

The group is one of the toughest in the tournament but Senegal’s experience, physical power and attacking quality mean they remain a real threat.

Ivory Coast are in a slightly different position. They have a 64.2% chance of reaching the round of 32 from Group E where they face Germany, Ecuador and Curaçao.

The middle zone of African uncertainty

Ghana, South Africa and Tunisia sit in a more uncertain area.

Ghana have a 49.5% chance of progressing from Group L where England & Croatia are the favourites. South Africa are close to the same mark with 48.9% in Group A, helped by a group that appears more open than others.

Tunisia are given a 43.4% chance in Group F behind the Netherlands, Japan and Sweden.

Their defensive strength gives them hope but the group looks highly competitive.

These numbers show how the expanded format changes the story. Teams that might have been clear outsiders in a 32 team tournament now have a realistic route through the best third place system.

Cape Verde & DR Congo face the toughest road

The hardest African paths belong to Cape Verde & DR Congo.

Cape Verde, one of the tournament’s debutants, have a 32.9% chance of reaching the knockout stage from a group containing Spain, Uruguay and Saudi Arabia.

Their qualification is already historic, but the model sees progression as a difficult challenge.

DR Congo are placed in Group K with Portugal, Colombia and Uzbekistan. Opta sees Portugal and Colombia as the clear favourites leaving DR Congo with a narrow route that may depend heavily on finishing among the best third placed teams.

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